Ukraine and US Unable to Conclude Rare Earth Minerals Deal
On Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine held a meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington, aiming to sign a deal allowing the US to access Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources. Nonetheless, the discussions took a surprising shift, resulting in a tense argument with Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. After Zelensky left prematurely, the White House confirmed that no deal was finalized.
Zelensky had earlier conveyed hope that this “initial” agreement might lead to enhanced collaboration. Yet, he acknowledged that Ukraine still hadn’t obtained any security assurances from the US—a crucial point for him. Trump contended that the agreement could enable American taxpayers to “recover their funds” from the aid given to Ukraine during the conflict, but emphasized that Europe should assume the main role in ensuring Kyiv’s security.
What Are the Terms of the Agreement?
On Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Kyiv and Washington had finalized a draft of the agreement, which was released on Friday morning. The deal outlined the creation of an “investment fund” to support Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts.
Shmyhal mentioned that the fund would be overseen “equally” by both countries. According to the agreement, Ukraine would contribute 50% of its prospective earnings from publicly owned mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. The generated funds would be directed towards projects designed to bolster Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic development.
The US, in turn, pledged a long-term financial commitment to fostering a stable and prosperous Ukraine, subject to US law. The agreement also stipulated that the US would own the maximum share of the fund permitted under American regulations.
Contentions Regarding Mineral Access and Financial Conditions
Tensions between Trump and Zelensky appear to have escalated over the specific terms of the minerals deal. Initially, the US sought a $500 billion claim on Ukraine’s mineral wealth, a demand that Zelensky rejected. Reports indicate that this request was later withdrawn.
Tymofiy Mylovanov, who previously served as a Ukrainian minister and now leads the Kyiv School of Economics, stated that Washington’s original proposal threatened Ukraine’s sovereignty and risked economic downfall. However, he observed that the US has adjusted its stance, presenting a fairer agreement centered on joint ownership, without making claims on past assistance. He believes this revised approach could eventually advantage Ukraine.
Trump has emphasized the financial aspect, stating on Tuesday that the US has provided between $300 billion and $350 billion in aid to Ukraine and that a minerals deal could help recover these funds. However, the Kiel Institute, a German think tank, estimates that actual US assistance amounts to $119 billion.
Are Security Assurances Part of the Agreement?
An important issue for Zelensky has been the insertion of clear security assurances from the US. On Wednesday, he confirmed that these guarantees had not been obtained.
“I sought a clause concerning security guarantees for Ukraine as it is vital,” Zelensky remarked.
In response to queries about potentially walking away if security assurances weren’t included, he answered: “I seek a NATO pathway or an equivalent solution. Without security guarantees, a ceasefire won’t be feasible, and nothing will operate effectively.”
Even though there are no direct security commitments, the agreement contains language expressing US support for Ukraine’s pursuit of security assurances to secure enduring peace.
Zelensky insisted that Ukraine would not complete the agreement until he and Trump arrived at a consensus regarding security assurances and figured out how to incorporate them into the initial deal. On the other hand, Trump minimized the notion of direct US security guarantees, asserting that Europe should now assume those duties. He further mentioned that having American workers in Ukraine would provide “automatic security.”
Zelensky initially proposed the idea of a minerals agreement as a way to offer the US a concrete motivation to maintain its support for Ukraine. Trump has implied that, in return for granting mineral access, Ukraine would ensure the “right to keep fighting,” and that the US would continue providing military gear and ammunition “until an agreement with Russia is achieved.”
The US president has additionally asserted that Russia is willing to permit European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has rejected this option.
What is the Timeline for Signing the Agreement?
Trump initially announced that the agreement would be finalized during Friday’s White House meeting. Although Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal verified that the final draft of the agreement was ready, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, explained that only a framework agreement was meant to be signed.
Ultimately, no agreement was signed. Instead, the gathering turned into a clash between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. During the heated exchange, Trump accused Zelensky of not showing enough gratitude for US support and cautioned him against “risking World War Three.”
“You need to finalize a deal, or we’re done,” Trump allegedly told Zelensky. “You lack leverage.”
Zelensky, in response, insisted that there could be “no compromises” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Shortly after and earlier than planned, Zelensky departed from the White House. Subsequently, the White House declared that the agreement was not completed, with Trump personally calling off the signing event.
Trump later took to Truth Social, alleging that Zelensky had “disrespected the US in its esteemed Oval Office” and remarked: “He can return when he is prepared for peace.”
At this point, it remains unclear whether or when the agreement will be signed.
Ukraine’s Rich Mineral Resources
Kyiv estimates that Ukraine possesses about 5% of the world’s “essential raw materials.” This encompasses roughly 19 million metric tons of verified graphite deposits, ranking Ukraine among the top five suppliers globally of this mineral, which is vital for manufacturing electric vehicle batteries.
Moreover, Ukraine boasts substantial quantities of titanium and lithium. The nation also asserts it has considerable reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals crucial for military applications, wind turbines, and electronic gadgets—although some experts question the precise extent of these reserves.
Adding to the complexity, certain mineral-abundant regions of Ukraine are presently under Russian control. Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has indicated that mineral deposits with an estimated value of $350 billion are situated in areas occupied by Russia.
An additional challenge to extracting minerals is the extensive presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that about 25% of Ukraine’s territory is affected, especially in the war-ravaged eastern areas.
Time is another concern. Even if the agreement is completed, it might be years before the extraction and export of these resources produce measurable economic gains.
“These resources are not stored in a warehouse ready for dispatch—they need to be developed,” explained Mylovanov. “Should the US invest, it could eventually prove advantageous for everyone involved.”
How Has Russia Reacted?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet made any remarks regarding the reported specifics of the US-Ukraine agreement. However, on Monday, he informed Russian state television that Moscow is ready to “offer” mineral resources to American firms for joint ventures, which includes mining in Russia’s “new territories”—referring to the occupied regions of eastern Ukraine.
Putin downplayed the potential US-Ukraine agreement as inconsequential, asserting that Russia “certainly possesses, I want to stress, far more of these resources than Ukraine.”
“Regarding the new territories, we are open to involving foreign partners in developing these areas, which have rejoined the Russian Federation,” he stated.
In the meantime, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated on Tuesday that the situation is still evolving: “We’ll see whether [Ukraine and the US] will sign this agreement or something else. No official announcements have been made on this issue yet.”
